Wait and See on Campbell's Future

(Aired on August 10, 2010)

I never get tired of reading and hearing political pundits, and seeing newspaper headlines about things you absolutely know will change. The latest series of headlines and stories concerns the political future of Gordon Campbell. "Campbell Down But Not Out," screams one headline, "Even a New Leader Won't Help Liberals Win Next Election" says another.

Now when you've seen as much news as I have over 40 years of headline watching, you know that this group of headlines is going to change. When it's going to change, I'm not sure, but it will change. Those speculating about the future of Gordon Campbell will soon find out that Gordon Campbell is going to come back. Will he come back strong enough to win the next election? Who knows. Will he give way to a new leader? Again, uncertain. But we know for sure that the election is far enough away that anything can happen between now and then.

There have been lots of elections where political leaders have been dead right up to election day, and they wind up winning. I can recall doing polls just before an election and find out election day that the polls are totally wrong. Politicians are fond of telling you that the only poll that matters is the one on election day. And in this case, they are right.

The news headlines you are seeing right now may well sell newspapers and have you watch more TV, but that's all they do. They are hardly the essence of reality, and a lot of water will cross under the bridge between now and May of 2013. To paraphrase a famous quotation from Mark Twain, the reports of Gordon Campbell's political death are greatly exaggerated.