(Aired on April 27, 2010)
The uproar over the Harmonized Sales Tax has reached jet engine-like decibel levels in this province. Observe any anti-H.S.T. petition signing event, and you will see people more than eager to sign up to voice their displeasure. We've heard stories of canvassers being chased down the street by potential signatories they inadvertently missed - people desperate to ensure the tax will fail.
And while all of this outrage is being directed at the provincial Liberals - and very little at Ottawa where the idea originated - my prediction is that it won't be enough to torpedo the Campbell government. The fact that the next provincial election is three years away is part of the reason behind that theory. This degree of pissed-offedness cannot be sustained for that long. But the real reason the H.S.T. itself won't sink the B.C Liberals has more to do with their opposition.
The provincial N.D.P. simply can't position itself against a tax as a matter of principle. I know the B.C. political scene is screwed up, but it's not completely upside down. Not long ago, the New Democrats came out great guns against the carbon tax with an "Axe the Tax" campaign. That effectively raised the hackles of the public.
But if the N.D.P. is going to come out great guns against the H.S.T. as well, it will soon be known as the anti-tax party. Cariboo-North M.L.A. Bob Simpson acknowledged this positioning problem in an interview with me several months ago. He said the party would have to focus on the fact that the Liberals deceived voters by not making the H.S.T. an election issue. Already, though, that argument is losing steam, and the opposition is focused on the effects of the tax itself. In three years' time the N.D.P's argument of "remember what they did last time" won't be nearly as effective as the argument "look what they're doing to you right now."
By then, the sting of the tax will have subsided and the Liberals will live to rule another day.
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Even if the HST petition gets the required number of signatures, the government has the option to put the bill proposed by the petition to a vote in the legislature, instead of holding a referendum. The government will then use its majority to defeat the bill and the HST will remain in place. I don't think killing the HST is the endgame of the Fight HST organizers. They now have an established ground organization which can be converted into a "recall your Liberal MLA" campaign. In a recall, canvassers don't have to be registered voters in the riding they are canvassing, they just have to be registered voters, so the campaign can focus their volunteers from across BC on vulnerable Liberal ridings (notice that Chad Moats said the goal was to get 40% to sign the HST petition in Kamloops North, which is exactly the threshold needed to recall an MLA). Look for 6 or more recall petitions to pop up in Spring 2011 and expect the resulting by-elections in the Fall of 2011. This would reduce the Liberals from 48 to 42 or fewer seats and rob them of their majority.
ReplyDeleteYes, Doug you are probably right. Just like the Carbon Tax.... People forget over time. Reminder about the little present on July 1st. HST and Carbon Tax increase. Happy Birthday Canada. Double Whammy from Gordo.
ReplyDeleteSix-of-One,
ReplyDeleteThis would reduce the Liberals from 48 to 42 or fewer seats and rob them of their majority.
This of course assumes that everyone who votes to rescind the HST would vote to recall their MLA and trigger the by-election. Two entirely different decisions.
Fair comment, James. It depends on how ticked off the voters still are about the HST next spring (since the issue would be put to a vote in the Legislature in Fall 2010, it might still be fresh in their minds). But I still expect that the Fight HST organizers will attempt the recall petitions.
ReplyDelete